Notes From the Tour de France: What to Expect this Year?

Can anyone beat Tadej Pogačar and his quest for a fourth Tour de France victory? 

This is the biggest – but far from the only – storyline for the TDF, which starts July 5 in Lille and ends July 27 in Paris. The 112th edition of the world’s biggest, best and most scenic bicycle race will be the first in five years to be raced entirely in France. The 184 riders on 23 teams will cycle through Normandy, Brittany, the Loire Valley, the Massif Central, the Pyrenees, Provence, the Alps and end in Paris. 

For me, watching the Tour roll through these regions presents options on where to go and what to see and cycle on my next French visit. Well, actually, my next, next visit, as I’m headed to Brittany in September.  

Slovenian superstar 

Pogačar, 26, won the TDF in 2020 and 2021, finished second to Jonas Vingegaard (Denmark) in 2022 and 2023 and won his third yellow jersey last year (Vingegaard was second). Pogačar is the reigning world champion and recently dominated the mountain stages to win the Criterium du Dauphiné stage race. Vingegaard was… second. And seems headed for another second-place finish at the TDF unless he can somehow figure out a way to outclimb Pogačar, who can accelerate quickly and decisively on the steepest climbs and quickly leave Vingegaard and everyone else behind.  

Other contenders 

Belgian star Remco Evenepoel was third in the 2024 Tour de France and won the road race and time trail at the recent Olympics in Paris, posing iconically, holding his bike aloft, in front of the Eiffel Tower. Primož Roglič (Slovenia) seemed headed for victory in the 2020 TDF before Pogačar beat him convincingly in the individual time trial on the penultimate stage of the race to take the lead and win the next day. In the ensuing years, Roglič has been involved in a series of bad-luck crashes that have doomed his chances to contend for the yellow jersey. If healthy and crash-free, he could fight for a top-three spot. 

Sprint star 

One of the highlights of the 2024 TDF was the emergence of Biniam Girmay Hailu, an Eritrean sprint specialist. He won three stages and the green jersey as the overall sprint points leader. This was the first time a Black cyclist from Africa had ever won a stage at the TDF and Biniam became an instant superstar in his home country and a crowd favorite. Biniam has the unique ability, in the midst of all the pushing and shoving for position and the dangers of a mass sprint finish, to remain calm and seemingly glide through narrow openings and cross the line first. He should contend again for stage wins and green. 

Many races In One 

While winning the yellow jersey as the overall winner of the TDF is the biggest prize in cycling … there are many other victories on the line. The polka dot jersey goes to the rider who amasses the most mountain points; the green jersey to the rider who tallies the most sprint points; the white jersey goes to the 25-and-under rider with the best overall time. And winning a single stage of the Tour is a huge victory for any and all riders and their teams. And country. Especially if it is a French rider, such as Julian Alaphillippe. He’s a popular and aggressive rider who will take many chances in breakaways and try and stay away from the pack.  

First test 

After four relatively flat stages, Stage 5 is a 33-kilometer individual time trial that starts and finishes in Caen (Normandy) and will give us an idea who will contend for the yellow jersey. Evenepoel won the time trial at the Dauphiné and will be the favorite. Stage 13 is the other individual time trial, a 10.9-kilometer ride from Loudenvielle to Peyragudes.  

Mountain top finishes 

Stage 10 is the first of the six mountain stages and finishes on Le Mont-Dore Puy de Sancy. This is where Pogačar  will begin to test his competitors and perhaps make a move for the yellow jersey. The mountain stages are where the TDF is won – and lost. Stage 11 will finish atop the Hautacam (1,520 meters) and Stage 14 on the summit of the Luchon-Superbagneres (1,804). Both are in the Pyrenees and thousands will line the narrow roads near the top. It always makes me nervous watching the riders squeeze their way through the crowds, especially when over-zealous fans start running alongside the riders. I’ve been known to yell at them through my television screen. 

Stage 16 features the mighty Mont Ventoux. It’s not in the TDF every year, but whenever it is … expect something special. From the base in Bédoin it’s a 21.2-kilometer climb to the moon-like summit with an average uphill gradient of 7.5 percent. There could be all sorts of drama here if Vingegaard, Evenepoel and Roglič are within striking distance of Pogačar . 

But wait – there are even more mountains stages, a two-in-a-row grueling test in the high Alps sure to crack many of the top contenders and determine the overall winner and Top 10 standings. Stage 18 ends on the Col de la Loze (2,304 meters), after a 21.5-kilometer ride with an average gradient of 7.7 percent. The very next day, the stage ends on La Plagne (2,052 meters) after a 15.2-kilometer ride with an average gradient of 6.9 percent. And this is the third major climb of the day. Vingegaard is at his best in the high mountains and, if he’s close to Pogačar in the standings, these two stages (and the Ventoux) are where he could make his move. 

More Montmarte 

The TDF finished in Nice in 2024 due to preparations for the upcoming Summer Olympics in Paris. This year, it’s back to Paris and the iconic laps around the Champs Elysee. For the first time, after debuting in the Olympics, the final stage in Paris will include a trip up the hill of Montmarte. This is the 50th time the TDF has ended in Paris. 

Where to Watch 

It depends on where you watch from. Here’s the link to the official TDF website and the list of where to watch from more than 200 countries.